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Purchase price analysis North Sea and Baltic Sea

09/06/2022 · Autor: VON POLL IMMOBILIEN


Contents on this page:

  1. Coastal Report North Sea: High demand of real estate buyers in all price segments
  2. Coastal Report Baltic Sea: High demand for homes in all price segments
  3. Buying Price Factors North Sea Coast: Emden, Bremerhaven and Wilhelmshaven with multipliers below 27
  4. Buy Price Factors Baltic Sea Coast: Only in Flensburg the multiplier is below 30

1. Coastal Report North Sea: high demand of property buyers in all price segments

The domestic North Sea coast has been a popular destination for generations. In addition to rest and relaxation, lure dreamy fishing villages and maritime resorts. But also the scenic Wadden Sea and a wide hinterland invite you to walk, hike or bike. These are just a few good reasons why more and more buyers are looking for a property right here, whether as a primary or secondary residence. The high demand for residential property is also reflected in the rising real estate prices. A good overview is provided by VON POLL IMMOBILIEN experts, who have analyzed the purchase price development1 on the North Sea coast for single-family houses2 in the counties and independent cities as well as on the islands* for the first quarter of 2022 compared to the same quarter of the previous year.

The most important facts at a glance

  1. The most expensive single-family homes on the North Sea coast are on the North Frisian Islands with an average of 14.115 €/m2, where it is known that the island of Sylt with 18,740 €/m2 is a clear price driver.
  2. In contrast, houses are cheapest in Emden with 2,222 €/m2 and Wesermarsch with 2,243 €/m2, where prices have risen by 12 percent and 11.6 percent respectively compared to the same quarter last year.
  3. While the purchase prices in the first quarter of 2022 in Dithmarschen with 27.6 percent climbed the most, the East Frisian Islands record with 5.7 percent the lowest price increase among the analyzed regions of the North Sea coast.

Daniel Ritter, managing partner at VON POLL IMMOBILIENDaniel Ritter, managing partner at VON POLL IMMOBILIEN:

"Demand from buyers remains high on the North Sea coast and that in all price segments, with supply stagnating in some regions. That strengthens the price dynamics additionally. Prospective buyers come from all over Germany. Their search radius is increasingly extending to the hinterland, at least if the infrastructure is right. However, some compromises have to be made when it comes to secondary schools, i.e. grammar schools or vocational schools. These are mostly only available in the cities."

Not surprisingly, the islands of the North Sea coast lead the ranking of the most expensive real estate prices. Accordingly, prospective buyers must expect an average of approximately 14,115 €/m2 for a single-family home on the North Frisian Islands. In the comparison to the first quarter 2021 the square meter prices rose thereby by 17,1 per cent. The island of Sylt alone, the clear price driver of the archipelago, is even higher with currently €18,740/m2 for an average house and a price increase of a whopping 21.7 percent.


Martin Weiß, Branch Manager VON POLL IMMOBILIEN SyltMartin Weiß, Branch Manager at VON POLL IMMOBILIEN on Sylt:

"Sylt is in demand as ever. However, the offer has reduced to about a third and that causes a price spiral upwards. However, even buyers on Sylt do not pay every required price. Above all the situation must fit. Compared with the mainland, prospective buyers on the islands must be prepared in principle to spend more money for less property. A correct Geheimtipp does not give it on Sylt any longer."

On the second place the east Frisian islands with an average square meter price of 8,206 euro and with 5.7 per cent of the smallest price increase under the analyzed regions follow in the first quarter 2022.

Who looks for a house for under 3,000 €/m2, becomes in the remaining ten analyzed regions fündig. In the price middle field the square meter prices lie clearly more closely together. The midfield is led by mainland Nordfriesland* with 2,657 €/m2, Wittmund* with 2,544 €/m2, Aurich* with 2,489 €/m2 and Friesland* with 2438 €/m2. It is interesting to look here at the development of purchase price increases in the first quarter of 2022 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. While Friesland* records the second weakest increase in the entire analysis at 8.8 percent, property prices in North Friesland* climb the second highest at 26.2 percent. Compared with the first quarter of 2021, it will also be significantly more expensive in Cuxhaven, where purchase prices will rise by 24.1 percent and reach an average price per square meter of 2,380 euros. However, the front-runner with the most significant increase is Dithmarschen with 27.6 percent to currently 2,353 €/m2.


Robert Monien, Branch Manager VON POLL IMMOBILIEN CuxhavenRobert Monien, Branch Manager at VON POLL IMMOBILIEN in Cuxhaven:

"In Cuxhaven, Sahlenburg and Altenbruch are considered insider tips due to their proximity to the Elbe as well as the North Sea. Inland it is Otterndorf, Cadenberge, Hemmoor, Oberndorf, Wingst, certain parts of the Wurtser North Sea coast and Bremerhaven. More and more interested parties are also looking inland with good infrastructure. Anything up to half an hour from the coast is in high demand. Longer than three months, detached houses and vacation homes are no longer on the market."

Slightly less deeply must prospective buyers in Bremerhaven with 2,334 € / m2 and Wilhelmshaven with 2,298 € / m2 in the pocket grab. Here, prices in the first quarter of 2022 will rise by 15.2 percent and 12.3 percent, respectively, compared with the first quarter of 2021.


Hermann Mehrtens, Branch Manager VON POLL IMMOBILIEN Wilhelmshaven and JeverHermann Mehrtens, Branch Manager VON POLL IMMOBILIEN Shops in Wilhelmshaven and Jever:

"Good offers are sold quickly. As a secret tip are still the somewhat remote localities in Wangerland or near Varel. Of course, interested parties must then also make cutbacks. The farther real estates of the coast are removed, the more favorably the prices become."

It is most favorable in the regions Wesermarsch and Emden. Here, prospective buyers pay an average of €2,243/m2 and €2,222/m2 for a single-family home, respectively, with property prices rising by 11.6 percent in Wesermarsch and 12 percent in Emden.

Graphic North Sea property price development for detached and semi-detached houses


Nils Onken, managing partner at VON POLL IMMOBILIEN Emden, Aurich, Norden and EsensNils Onken, branch manager of VON POLL IMMOBILIEN stores in Emden, Aurich, Norden and Esens:

"The circle of buyers has changed. Was it previously mainly an older clientele, so now also buy many young families. Due to the changes in society to remote work and hybrid work models are increasingly blurring the boundaries between primary and secondary residence.
As an insider tip are the larger villages that score with good infrastructure, such as Marienhafe, Hage or Großheide. Some of these are also very close to the coast. Here prospective customers still get something more for their money."

2nd Coastal Report Baltic Sea: High demand for houses in all price segments

The Baltic Sea coast is not only considered one of the most popular vacation destinations, but also attracts many prospective real estate buyers to the north. Live where others vacation - this thought comes to some coastal vacationers during their visit. In addition, the effects of the pandemic have increased the longing for a second home, which could also become a primary residence, in one's own country. The VON POLL IMMOBILIEN experts have therefore analyzed the real estate price development for single-family houses2 in the counties, independent cities and on the peninsulas and islands* on the Baltic Sea coast and compared the purchase prices1 of the first quarter of 2022 with the same quarter of the previous year.

The most important facts at a glance

  1. The most expensive are single-family houses on the peninsula Fischland-Darß-Zingst with circa 4.792 €/m2, on the island of Fehmarn with 4,198 €/m2 and in the Hanseatic city of Lübeck with 4,020 €/m2, with individual, particularly popular locations such as Timmendorfer Strand (Ostholstein district) with 6.163 €/m2 are still above the price level of the leader.
  2. In the cheapest counties, Vorpommern-Greifswald with 1,779 €/m2and Vorpommern-Rügen with 2.295 €/m2, property prices climbed by 21.1 percent and 23.8 percent respectively.
  3. While compared to the same quarter last year, the purchase prices in the cities of Kiel and Flensburg rose by 13.3 percent weakest, the district of Plön recorded the strongest price increase of 28.9 percent.

Daniel Ritter, managing partner at VON POLL IMMOBILIENDaniel Ritter, managing partner at VON POLL IMMOBILIEN:

"Demand on the part of buyers is still high on the Baltic coast and in all price segments, although supply is stagnating in some areas. This is also due to the fact that there is a slight restraint on the part of sellers due to the current political and economic situation in the world. This, of course, is further exacerbating the price trend. Many buyers still come from various German states and large metropolitan areas such as Berlin and Hamburg. Some are already dreaming of a relaxing retirement on the coast. But also the market at vacation houses and second homes lures many people into the scenic Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Schleswig-Holstein."

The three frontrunners with the most expensive square meter prices for houses on the Baltic coast are, in addition to the peninsula Fischland-Darß-Zingst, the island of Fehmarn and the Hanseatic city of Lübeck. On Fischland-Darß-Zingst, prospective buyers pay an average of €4,792/m2 for a house, on Fehmarn €4,198/m2 and in Lübeck €4,020/m2. A look at particularly popular places such as Timmendorfer beach with an average of 6,163 €/m2 or also Scharbeutz with 4,774 €/m2 (both located in the Ostholstein district) shows, however, that isolated locations of other regions of the Baltic coast are also above the price level of the frontrunners in the analysis.

The development of the purchase price increases compared to the same period last year is also interesting. While the purchase prices in Fischland-Darß-Zingst climbed by 19.8 percent and in Lübeck by 23 percent, the island of Fehmarn recorded the second strongest price increase in the entire ranking with a whopping 28.3 percent.


Steffen Siemon, branch manager VON POLL IMMOBILIEN Darss-ZingstSteffen Siemon, branch manager at VON POLL IMMOBILIEN in Fischland-Darß-Zingst:

"Even though demand and property prices have risen in our region, interested parties can still find insider tips. These include the southern Bodden coast, the hinterland of the Baltic coast and the communities of Bodstedt, Fuhlendorf, Saal and Pruchten. There it is much quieter, even more private and closer to nature. Nevertheless, these regions score with short distances to the tourist centers, increasing tourist development and moderate purchase prices."

Thorsten Claus, Branch Manager VON POLL IMMOBILIEN Lübeck and Bad SchwartauThorsten Claus, Branch Manager at VON POLL IMMOBILIEN in Lübeck and Bad Schwartau:

"The village of Haffkrug, belonging to the municipality of Scharbeutz. Here there is gastronomy, which is operated by the old Haffkrug families for decades. Here the people know each other, it is all a little more unexcited, more original, not as sophisticated as Scharbeutz or Timmendorfer Strand. The place has a wonderful promenade and an extensive beach with white sand. Above all, the place is popular with older people who long for peace and tranquility."

With only a little distance to the third-place winner, the district of Ostholstein* and the Hanseatic city of Rostock follow. In Ostholstein, prospective buyers must currently expect a price per square meter of approximately 3,930 euros - this corresponds to a price increase of 26.6 percent compared to the previous year. In Rostock, the average price for a house in the first quarter of 2022 was €3,928/m2 and thus 23.8 percent higher than in the first quarter of 2021.

It is cheapest along the German Baltic coast in the districts of Vorpommern-Rügen* and Vorpommern-Greifswald*. In Vorpommern-Rügen, property prices climbed 23.8 percent to a current €2,295/m2, while in Vorpommern-Greifswald they rose 21.1 percent to €1,779/m2.


Raik Loßau, Branch Manager VON POLL IMMOBILIEN StralsundRaik Loßau, Branch Manager at VON POLL IMMOBILIEN in Stralsund (district of Vorpommern-Greifswald):

"A very promising area is Andershof, which belongs to the Hanseatic city of Stralsund. Here, several residential areas are created, which should further revitalize this part of the city. Also, the infrastructure will be significantly expanded and additional facilities will be built. These investments will enrich the area." He continued, "In the southern area of Stralsund, buyers have to accept some cutbacks. In the rural area, there is often a lack of central development. Proximity to the water is also often missed. However, it is positive that the price is decreasing significantly."

Still below 3,000 €/m2 are single-family homes on the island of Rügen. Here, the square meter prices rose compared to the same quarter last year by 14.7 percent to currently approximately 2,773 euros. The districts of Schleswig-Flensburg with €2,740/m2, Northwest Mecklenburg with €2,554/m2 and Rostock district with €2,306/m2 also rank below this limit. The price increases rank here between 27.9 per cent and 25.3 per cent.

It is noticeable that both the lowest and the highest price increase in relation to the previous year quarter are to be found in the midfield of the analyzed regions. While the real estate prices in Kiel and Flensburg rose in the first quarter 2022 around in each case 13.3 per cent, climbed the square meter prices with the houses in the district Plön around full 28.9 per cent, the thus highest price increase in the first quarter 2022 at the Baltic Sea coast. Property buyers must reckon in the Schleswig-Holstein state capital Kiel with approximately 3,788 €/m2 for a single-family house, in the district Plön with 3,467 €/m2, on the peninsula Usedom with 3,254 €/m2 and in the district-free city Flensburg with 3,156 €/m2.

Also in the midfield in terms of price, the district of Rendsburg-Eckernförde ranks with an average price per square meter of €3,024 - whereby the purchase price in the region climbed the third most with a price increase of 28 percent.

Graphic real estate price development Baltic Sea for one- and two-family houses


Robert Rothböck, Branch Manager VON POLL IMMOBILIEN Kiel, Eckernförde, Neumünster, Rendsburg and PlönRobert Rothböck, Branch Manager VON POLL IMMOBILIEN stores in Kiel, Eckernförde, Neumünster, Rendsburg and Plön:

"First and foremost, prospective buyers are looking for larger plots of land, mostly for their own use. Also the hinterland is well suited as a residence. Owners are quickly at the coast and find peace and relaxation even during the high season. The region offers a very high recreational value, whether for cycling or horseback riding enthusiasts.
The proximity to the beach plays here rather a subordinate role. The situation is different, however, for condominiums. Here we are seeing very strong demand for properties with a water view."

3. Purchase price factors North Sea coast: Emden, Bremerhaven and Wilhelmshaven with multipliers below 27

The purchase price factor provides information on how profitable a real estate investment is. With a purchase price factor of 20, for example, it takes 20 years for investors to recoup the purchase price through rental income generated. A value between 25 and 30 usually serves as a benchmark for a profitable investment. In many German vacation regions, however, the purchase price factor exceeds this threshold. Also in the coastal region approximately around the North Sea the purchase price factors exceed this standard value often around a multiple.

Total three of the 13 analyzed regions at the North Sea coast exhibit a multiplier with owner-occupied dwellings between 16 and 26. In the independent city of Emden (purchase price: 2,346 €/m², rent: 11.96 €/m²), the tail end of the ranking, a real estate investment is currently the most attractive. Property buyers there have to factor in an average of 16.3 annual net rents. Thereupon the cities Bremerhaven (purchase price: 1,945 €/m², rent: 6,72 €/m²) with a purchase price factor of 24,1 and Wilhelmshaven (purchase price: 2.108 €/m², rent: 6,72 €/m²) with 26,1.

Already over the ideal purchase price factor span settle four of the North Sea regions, in which investors must count on indicators between 32 and 40. These include the districts of Wesermarsch (purchase price: 2,558 €/m², rent: 6.59 €/m²) with 32.2, Friesland* (purchase price: 3,400 €/m², rent: 7.74 €/m²) with 36.6, Aurich* (purchase price: 3.689 €/m², rent: 7.82 €/m²) with 39.3 and Wittmund* (purchase price: 3,685 €/m², rent: 7.78 €/m²) with 39.5. Above the threshold of 40 annual net rents are the district of Cuxhaven (purchase price: 4.043 €/m², rent: 7.82 €/m²), the island of Sylt (purchase price: 13,024 €/m², rent: 23.72 €/m²) and the district of Dithmarschen (purchase price: 4,450 €/m², rent: 8.00 €/m²) with multipliers between 43.1 and 46.4.

In the district of Nordfriesland* (purchase price: 5,266 €/m², rent: 8.62 €/m²), property buyers have to calculate with an average of 50.9 annual net cold rents for residential property. Investors on the island groups of the North Sea wait the longest for the purchase price to be settled. The East Frisian Islands (purchase price: 11,742 €/m², rent: 14.34 €/m²) are the most expensive region in the ranking after Sylt - the multiplier is also above average at 68.2. However, the North Frisian Islands (including Sylt) (purchase price: 11,196 €/m², rent: 9.87 €/m²) have the highest purchase price factor with 95.4.

Graphic North Sea: Development of the purchase price factor for condominiums

It is also exciting to look at the development of the purchase price factors from the first quarter of 2022 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. In this period, the indicator climbed particularly strongly in one region: On the East Frisian Islands, the purchase price factor rose by a whopping 47.9 percent. But also on the island of Sylt with 37.7 percent and in the district of Dithmarschen with 30.8 percent, a significant increase in the purchase price factor can be seen.

In contrast, the lowest increases were in Bremerhaven with 9.8 percent and in Wittmund* with 7.7 percent. In the independent city of Emden, a decline of 23.6 percent can even be observed.

4. purchase price factors Baltic Sea coast: only in Flensburg is the multiplier below 30

The purchase price factor provides information about how profitable a real estate investment is. With a purchase price factor of 20, for example, it takes 20 years for investors to offset the purchase price through rental income generated. A value between 25 and 30 usually serves as a benchmark for a profitable investment. In many German vacation regions, however, the purchase price factor exceeds this threshold. Also in the coastal region approximately around the Baltic Sea the purchase price factors exceed this standard value often around a multiple.

Intotal only one of the 16 analyzed regions at the Baltic Sea coast exhibits a purchase price factor with owner-occupied dwellings of under 30. The most attractive investment is currently in Flensburg (purchase price: 3,147 €/m2, rent: 9.01 €/m2), where real estate investors have to factor in an average of 29.1 annual net cold rents. Also very profitable are real estate investments in the district of Vorpommern-Greifswald* (purchase price: 2,573 €/m2, rent: 7.15 €/m2) with a purchase price factor of 30, in the district of Rendsburg-Eckernförde (purchase price: 3,175 €/m2, rent: 8.72 €/m²) with 30.3 and in the independent city of Kiel (purchase price: 4.068 €/m², rent: 10.04 €/m²) with 33.8.

Already above the ideal purchase price indicator, but still worth mentioning, are the regions with a value between 35 and 39. These include the Hanseatic city of Lübeck (purchase price: 4,503 €/m², rent: 10.46 €/m²) with a multiplier of 35.9, the district of Schleswig-Flensburg (purchase price: 3.868 €/m², rent: 8,56 €/m²) with 37,7, the district-free city Rostock (purchase price: 4.364 €/m², rent: 9,51 €/m²) with 38,2 and the district Plön (purchase price: 4.434 €/m², rent: 9,54 €/m²) with 38,7.

Significantly longer on a return on investment wait real estate investors in the regions northwest Mecklenburg (purchase price: 3.798 €/m², rent: 7.36 €/m²), Ostholstein* (purchase price: 5,573 €/m², rent: 10.61 €/m²), Usedom (purchase price: 5,079 €/m²), Vorpommern-Rügen* (purchase price: 4,179 €/m², rent: 7.22 €/m²) and Fischland-Darß-Zingst (purchase price: 6,353 €/m², rent: 10.90 €/m²). Here, the purchase price factors range between 43 and 48.6. On the island of Rügen (purchase price: 4,746 €/m², rent: 7.44 €/m²), property buyers must expect an average of 53.2 annual net cold rents for residential property. The island of Fehmarn (rent: 10.32 €/m²) calls up the most expensive purchase price for a condominium at 6,929 €/m², and the purchase price factor is also above average at 56. The highest Vervielfältiger in the entire Ranking exhibits however the circle Rostock (purchase price: 5,488 €/m ², rent: 7,43 €/m ²) with a value of 61,6.

Interesting is also a view of the development of the purchase price factors of the first quarter 2022 in the comparison to the previous year quarter. In this period, the multiplier climbed particularly strongly in one region: On the island of Fehmarn, the purchase price factor rose by a whopping 51.4 percent. However, there was also a significant increase in the purchase price factor in the district of Vorpommern-Rügen* at 35.7 percent and in the district of Rostock at 28 percent. By contrast, the lowest increases were in Flensburg at 7.3 percent and Vorpommern-Greifswald* at 3.6 percent. In the two Hanseatic cities of Lübeck and Rostock, the multiplier fell by 0.2 and 0.4 percent, respectively, and in the district of Rendsburg-Eckernförde there was even a decline of 10.5 percent.

Graphic Baltic Sea: Development of the purchase price factor for detached and semi-detached houses


1
The data basis of the purchase price analysis is based on the average offer prices of GeoMap for the first quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2021 as well as adjustments by VON POLL IMMOBILIEN Research (2022).

2 The term house or single-family house in this analysis refers to the following house types: Single-family house, two-family house, terraced house and semi-detached house.

In the course of the analysis, islands and peninsulas were considered separately and for the counties of North Friesland, Wittmund, Aurich and Friesland as well as Ostholstein, Vorpommern-Rügen and Vorpommern-Greifswald only the mainland, excluding the respective islands.

All data and graphics may be used and published with a reference to the following source: von Poll Immobilien GmbH.

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